Monsoon running about 11% below normal, and IMD expects the rest of the season to stay dry

The 2026 southwest monsoon is running short. Cumulative rainfall from 1 June was about 11–12% below the long-period average in the first days of August, and the India Meteorological Department expects the shortfall to persist rather than close.

What IMD is forecasting

August rainfall is projected at below 94% of its monthly long-period average — the LPA for the month is 254.9 mm — and the same below-normal call covers the second half of the season, August through September. Maximum temperatures are expected to run warmer than normal nationwide, with minimums normal to above normal.

The driver is moderate El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, expected to strengthen through the rest of the season. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole developing in September could offer partial relief, but that is a possibility rather than a forecast.

IMD’s pre-season outlook had already put 2026 at roughly 90% of LPA, with the Northeast and adjoining eastern regions among the areas most likely to end up below normal.

Why a dry monsoon still floods Guwahati

A below-normal season is a total, not a schedule. The rain that does fall arrives in fewer, heavier bursts — which is precisely the pattern that overwhelms city drainage. A depression over Jharkhand and northern Gangetic West Bengal in mid-August drove isolated extremely heavy rainfall across northeast Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and southeast Uttar Pradesh in exactly that way.

Guwahati flooded on 19 August in a season that is, on paper, short of rain. Our report on that day is here, and the urban flood do’s and don’ts are worth reading before the next depression forms.

For sowing decisions, check the district-level figures rather than the national number — the all-India average hides a great deal.